Free agency, an uncapped year and the final eight plan

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Over the past two days we’ve been busy dissecting the Saints Super Bowl XLIV victory and now it is only natural to turn our attention to wondering what is next for both Super Bowl participants. However, before we can begin our analysis we felt that it was important to understand how the landscape of the 2010 off season is about to change.

Barring an eleventh hour deal between the league and the NFLPA on a new collective bargaining agreement the composition of the free agent class will be substantially different than it has been in years past.

In the likely event that the NFL enters 2010 without a salary cap players will now required to accrue six years of service in the league in order to be eligible for unrestricted free agency rather than four. According to an Associated Press report 212 players that would have been unrestricted free agents under the old CBA framework will now find themselves restricted.

This particular change obviously favors the teams by enabling them to retain a player’s rights for two additional seasons, or provide relief in the form of draft picks, which will inherently become more valuable.

Another matter that will impact both the Colts and the Saints, as well as the other six teams that made it to the divisional round of the playoffs, is the “Final Eight Plan”. Under this mechanism any of these teams will be prohibited from signing an unrestricted free agent unless they lose one of their own.

Adding to the confusion, any unrestricted free agent they do sign will not be able to sign for more than the player they lost to free agency.

While these restrictions do not apply to the ability of these eight teams signing restricted free agents, any concern over prolonged labor disputes will most likely render teams unwilling to part with draft picks.

The current labor impasse is likely to severely impact player movement in 2010. Not only will the unrestricted free agent class shrink considerably, but as the salary cap goes away, so will the salary floor that has been in effect.

Traditionally the gap between the salary cap and floor has been narrow, which has helped the league maintain competitive balance. To illustrate this point, in 2009 the salary cap was $128 million and teams were required to spend a minimum of 87.6% of that amount, or $112.1 million. Had the current CBA not been terminated by the owners the salary floor would have increased by 1.2% per year until reaching 90% of the cap by 2011.

It is likely that smaller market teams that do not have significant ancillary revenue sources will certainly conserve cash to weather the storm. At the same time measures like the “Final Eight Plan” will effectively keep a quarter of the league’s teams from being major players in free agency.

Finally, another element that hasn’t been discussed nearly enough as it relates to the uncapped year is the elimination of any proration penalty related to cutting highly compensated players. Teams may elect to to part with players that any other year would have had a high cap number if they are deemed to have underperformed their contract.

Tagged as: Collective bargaining, Football, Free agent, National Football League, National Football League Players Association, Salary cap, Sport, Super Bowl